The analytical case against the mid-range jumper is well known. A two-point shot from sixteen feet is worth less per attempt than a three-pointer, a layup, or a free throw. League-wide, mid-range attempts have collapsed as a share of offense. And yet: the players who win the most playoff games often rely on the very shot the math says they should avoid.

The reason is context. In a regular-season possession, shot selection is an optimization problem — take the most valuable shots you can find, given the time on the clock and the defense in front of you. In a late-game playoff possession, the defense is locked in, help rotations are faster, and the easy looks the regular season surrenders are no longer available. What’s left is what can be created one-on-one.

That’s where the mid-range jumper earns its keep. A pull-up from the elbow is a shot a star can take against almost any defensive configuration. It doesn’t require a screen. It doesn’t require a passing lane. It requires only the skill to rise up against a contest. In the highest-leverage possessions of the postseason, that skill is what separates scorers who can carry a team from scorers who can’t.

The numbers support the nuance, too. Efficient mid-range shooters are rare, but the ones who exist are disproportionately represented on championship rosters. The shot is undervalued league-wide precisely because so few players can take it well. For those who can, it remains one of the most valuable tools in the sport.

The revolution was right about most of the game. The exception is the possession when everything else breaks down — and those are the possessions that decide seasons.